Influenza A/H1N1, Ignorance and fear is the deadliest virus. How can our PII projects contribute?

On May 1, 2009, there were 156 cases in Mexico, with only 9 deaths reported, and 109 cases in US with only 1 death reported.

Previous reports and "pandemic" talk described hundreds of victims. So far,influenza A/H1N1 has only caused 10 deaths in the entire world, as described by this WHO map.

"A crisis is a terrible thing to waste"

Paul Romer, economist

"Economists predicted 8 out of the last 4 global crises"

Kenneth Galbraith

Pork meat or produce are safe.

"Swine influenza has not been shown to be transmissible to people through
eating properly handled and prepared pork (pig meat) or other products derived
from pigs. The swine influenza virus is killed by cooking temperatures of
160°F/70°C corresponding to the general guidance for the preparation of pork and other meat."

World Health Organization, Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response (EPR):Swine influenza frequently asked questions

We must learn the lessons from SARS.

The colossal flow of misinformation has created more problems than the flu, forcing US, Mexico and World Health Organization to correct most of the "false positives" in the news:

"False positives" revealed until May 1, 2009:

1. The "death toll" is much lower than announced: only 9 on 128 deaths from pneumonia reported in Mexico were caused by A/H1N1 virus. Only 1 in the US. All deaths are reported in persons with additional and preexisting health conditions. WHO and Financial Times confirmed. 20,000 people die every year of pneumonia in Mexico alone. Many Mexican deaths are mostly caused by dysfunctional public healt-indiced cultural malpractices.


2. The virus didn't start at a hog farm nor in Mexico: there were previous cases reported in San Diego, California -and all of them tested positive for A/H1N1 and they had never been close to pigs or in Mexico. US CDC , WHO and Wall Street Journal reported. The current virus might likely be a benign genetic variety of foregin (not Mexicna, not American) varieties.

The H1N1 virus -generated by a mutation of a virus common to birds (SARS), humans and pigs, is transmitted from human to human only -and through the respiratory system-. N1H1 remains a A type influenza.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) last report, the N1H1 virus is the combination between 1 human influenza virus strain, 1 brid flu strain and 2 different virus strains from pigs. Viruses mutate and combine inside a human host, that operates as a "lab flask".

Infection is only possible from human to human through respiratory ways.

Food consumption (pork meat or any other produce) is safe.



According to the most recent report from US Center for Disease Control (CDC), Mexico is unlikely to be the origin of the virus, but its victim.

Mexico got more severe (lethal) cases moslty because its poorest population has less exposure to anti-influenza vaccines that US -and also a more crowded-air environment-. .

New information seems to indicate that lethal cases have almost come to a stop and new contagion inside Norteamerica has slowed down or stalled. Energetic measures by WHO, US and Mexico governments seem to be producing results, particularly the early hospitalization and use of proven antiviral drugs early on and preventively.

The economic damage to trade, tourism, agriculture and almost all kinds of economic activity is , however, pretty evident.

US-labs produced drugs and vaccines are already available and ramping up production to get out to the global market in May. WHO has millions of dosis, US Health Dept over 50 million and EU -after the SARS scare- has a stockpile about the same size.

At the begining - 15 days into the alarm- , 180 deaths were reported -150+ in Mexico-.

Only 9 were caused by N1H1.

A regular influenza epidemic produces 37,000 deaths in the US only.

The US government statistics since 1900 show 6 influenza pandemics:

1. 1918: Spanish influenza: 680,000 death in US. No vaccine or drugs available, virus unknown



2. 1957-58: Asian flu. 68,000 death in US. Virus was identified and vaccine developed



3. 1968: Hong Kong flu: 33,800 death in US. Virus identified and vaccine developed.



4. 1976: "Swine flu" threat: few hundred cases in Fort Dix, USA



5. 1977: China flu: first appearance of influenza A/H1N1 virus. Fuew hundred death, in minors



6. 1997: SARS: Started in China, with 18 death, 200 infected and was controlled.

US Secretary of Commerce recognized that "swine flu" should be called N1H1 and that pork produce is complete safe, reamking the damaga that misinformation causes to the industry and the population in US and Mexico depending on it.

In yet another example of the combination of misinformation and anti-free trade mindset, several countries -EU, China among the largest- have banned pork meat imports, when in fact, meat pork imports are safer than local production, since it is the interaction between animals and human viruses what causes the H1N1.

Imported meat goes through sanitary controls -in the H1N1 case not required because the virus doesn't come in the meat or pork product- whereas local producers and farmers are exposed to potential contagion human-to-human.

Facing the possibility of travel quarantine at a global scale and restrictions to the use of public space, the challenge is to find wasy to minimize disruptions to education, business and production.

As during the September 11, 2001 global scare and SARS, e-performance technologies might help alleviate and overcome such restrictions, by allowing human interaction and communication while minimizing person-to-person, physical contact.

Blended class between Madrid and Buenos Aires, 2001 :

Mega project organizing health centers in Tartagal, Salta, 1998 - Refinor project, Mariano Bernardez-

But our key questions must involve a larger framework of our current PII strategic projects:

1. How can your PII project help during this crisis ? (if it can be done, please also do it)



2. Which other PII projects could have strategic impact in this crisis? (explain why and how)



3. How can PII and ITSON help organize our South of Sonora ecosystem to overcome the crisis? Refer to our PII projects Mega indicators and goals.

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References

• Luhon, J, De Cordova, J & Naik, G. (2009) Germ Sleuths Stalk Origin of Killer Flu. Wall Street Journal


• CCD Report April 30: CDC Virologist: Swine Flu Origin Likely Not Mexico


• La Nacion (2009) Descartó la UE suspender los vuelos hacia México por la gripe porcina


• Sidney Sunday Times (2009) History of swine flu



• Tamiflu results (patients)



• Swine influenza cannot be transmitted through pork products



• Wikipedia (2009) Swine flu epidemic in Mexico - article in progress-



• World Health Organization resources on AVHN-1 potential pandemic



• US government Pandemicflu.gov.



• US impact of possible pandemic state-by-state analysis



• Bloomberg estimates



• History of global flu pandemics since 1900 (US government)



• Pandemics (different causes) Wikipedia



• Influenza pandemics



• Swine flu outbreak makes imported pork a harder sell



• Tamiflu anti-viral drug treatment



• Oseltamivir (generic drug)



• The Lancet (editorial, 2009) Swine influenza: how much of a glolbal threat?



• The Lancet(editorial, 2009) A reapraisal of avian influenza



• The Lancet (home page)



• World Health Organization (WHO Home page)



• WHO: Swine influenza updates



• WHO: FAQ on H1N1

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The way forward

If Paul Romer is right, we must use this crisis as an opportunity for improvement and transformation.

Here is a possible agenda:

1. How can we generalize pork production best practices?


2. How can we align meat production with Mega goals?


3. How can we organize a healthy ecosystem?

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Reference videos

The history of cold cuts (1 of 4)




The history of the pig (Modern Marvels)




Animal welfare - pig production best practices




Sustainability on the pig farm




How baby pigs are really treated




Truth about modern pork production




Pig farm employee tells all




Ham culture: Museo del Jamon, Madrid (Ham Museum, Madrid)




Iberico ham "de bellota" (acorn fed) arrives in Chicago




Iberico ham explained and demonstrated



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Client service: news from Whole Foods practices

After absorbing the initial downturn of the economy, Whole Foods is back in expansion.

A key for Whole Foods resilience is no other than responding and surpassing client expectations.

New Whole Foods at Annapolis



Whole Trade guarantee



Whole Foods and healthy eating



Social Responsibility (1)



Whole Planet Foundation overview



Prepared meals made by Whole Foods



Whole Foods deli



Whole Foods Meat department



Whole Foods cheese department



Post your comments on

1. How can our PII projects apply these ideas?
2. How can our PII projects work with companies like Whole Foods?
   

Is ethanol a good idea?

Ethanol seems to the the -often seen- case of politics getting in the way (and perception) of scientific and economic fact.

A recent Wall Street Journal article descrbes how and why US ethanol producers -even subsidized by the government- are experiencing losses and closing plants countrywide.

Subsidies and higher corn prices -both "success" factors that ethanol producers initially consider "stimulus"- seem to be rather negative factors hampering the ethanol.

Check these conflicting reports:

Ethanol scam



Corn prices frive farmers out of business



Ethanol plant construction stops in Nebraska



New ethanol plant inaugurated in Idaho (beginning 2008)



How to make ethanol work




Post comments to these discussion questions:

1. Is ethanol a good business idea?
2. Evaluate an ethanol project using Mega concepts.

Coaching for performance

Coaching is a critical part of teaching, learning, leading and implementation. Coaching individuals and teams must consider a series of factors.

Check the following examples:

Daniel Barenboim coaching pianists (master class)

Mariano Balcarce coaching Youth Tango Orchestra

Isaac Stern coaching violinists in China

Leonard Bernstein coaching tenor Jose Carreras - Part 2



Cus D'Amato coaching Mike Tyson



Different coaches discuss coaching



Post your comments to these discussion questions:

1. What are the key factors for coaching a successful performance?
2. Are there common factors among all examples ? Which?
3. Which case applies best to your PII project and why?
   
   
   

Native cultures and development: helping Yaquis build bridges between the past and the future

One of our most interesting and challenging projects is Etnias, focused on Yaqui tribe human development.

The Deer Dance is an ancient tradition among the Yaquis, that live on their lands on both sides of the Mexico/US border, as a nation.



Being Mexico what antropologist Darcy Ribeiro called a "testimonial country" -where native, Spanish and contemporary culture are almost seamlessly intertwined, Yaquis face the challenges -and opportunities- of embracing development while preserving and refining their own culture.

The use of original language is in jeopardy, and with it, ancient traditions and cultural identity. Below, a story in Yaqui with Spanish subtitles:



Post your comment on one (or all) of the following discussion questions:

1. Is it possible for the Yaquis tp improve Mega indicators without losing their rich traditions? How?
2. How can e-performance technology be used to help the Yaquis do the 1st? What kind of applications?
3. How can the Yaquis develop their Intellectual Capital?

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References

• Ribeiro, D. (1971) The Americas and Civilization.Google books
• Bernardez, M. (2008) Capital Intelectual: Creacion de valor en la sociedad del Conocimiento. Chicago, IL: ITSON Global Business Press

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Business opportunities during downturns V: Mexico: holding on and expecting to benefit from the crisis

A recent BusinessWeek report weeks ahead of President Barack Obama coming visit to Mexico shows that foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico is not only resisting the economic crisis and the escalation of drug violence, but showing prospects of growth for 2009-2010.

Among the reason why Mexico is getting such favorable forecasts are:

1. Lower risk than China on technology theft
2. Lower costs: the peso has dropped 41% against the dollar during the past year and the average Mexican industrial wage is 1.5 dollar per hour compared to 6 and 7 dollars in the US
3. Skills and knowledge: universities and government are offering skilled human capital and organizations accross the borrder
4. Logistics: Mexican factories are two days away from any major US city, whereas China are a month away. Factor also the rising cost of cargo, and the piracy hazards
5. Trade agreemnts with US such as NAFTA, Japan, EU and most of Latin American countrries give Mexico's exports more duty-free access to foreign markets than any other country.

Check the article and post your comments about how your PII project could seize these opportunities.

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References

• Engardio, P. & Smith, G. (2009) The Other Mexico: A Wave of Investment
  Who says it's a "failed state"? Ignoring the drug wars, multinationals are pumping in billions to set up factories . BusinessWeek
• Reuter (2009) Obama visit signals support for Mexico.

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Aid vs. entrepreneurship: a Zambian economist point of view

Economist and former Goldman Sachs´ Zambian Dambisa Moyo argues that aid to goverment is the least effective way to aid the poor to overcome poverty.



Her point is that entrepreneurship, for-profit investment is -by far- the most effective way to lift people from poverty.

Post below your comments on

1. Alternatives to direct government aid
2. How this argument relates to your PII project

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References

• Moyo, D. Ferguson, N. (2009) Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa.

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The Bottom Billion

Here is Oxford economist Paul Collier presentation at Aspen Ideas Festival on his thought-provoking concept of the poverty traps affecting the "bottom billion" of the poorest of the poor (mostly in Africa and some regions such as Afghanistan) that keep getting poorer.

In these two segments, Professor Collier discusses how the bottom billion, dysfunctional ecosystems and developed countries lobbies and "follies" render aid to these countries ineffective and how to avoid it.

Bottom Billion - part 1



Bottom Billion - part 2



Check the conferences and post your comments on how Collier´s specific points can be considered and addressed for our (and your) PII projects.

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References

• Collier, P. (2006) The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It . Oxford University Press

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The other path: Hernando De Soto and rule of law for the poor

Peruvian economist Hernando De Soto has produced -and implemented- an innovative and effective set of ideas to help the poor rise from poverty by their own means.

The following three-step conference Dr. De Soto himself will present his core ideas

Propery law and BOP poverty - part 1



Property law and BOP poverty - part 2



Property law and BOP poverty - part 3



Hernando De Soto´s career



Now, to the task: please post your comments on how to apply Hernando De Soto´s ideas to our PII projects (and/or yours specifically)

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References

• De Soto, H (2002) The Other Path: The Economic Answer to Terrorism
• De Soto, H. (2003) The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else

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The world is flat ... or isn´t?

Following Ingrid Guerra´s initiative, here are three views about globalization: Thomas Friedman´s concept and three stages and Oxford economist Ha-Jong Chang, author of provocative book on economic development Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective and Nobel Prize 1992 Economics laureate, Gary Becker.

Let´s start with Friedman´s in two pieces:

1. World is flat



2. Three eras of globalization



3. Why the world isn´t flat, according to Dr. Chang:

4. Globalization and inequality - Gary Becker, Nobel Prize Economics 1992



Now, what I want you to do is NOT to agree with any one of the three views, but to find how each approach can be applied to benefit our PII projects, regardless whether you agree more or less with one, other or none of the two perspectives.

Keep in mind writer Francis Scott Fitzgerald words on intelligence: "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function. One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise."

Post your comment indicating:

1. Which of Friedman´s concepts could you apply to your project and how?
2. Which of Chang´s concepts could you apply to your project and how?
3. Which of Becker´s concepts could you apply to your project and how?

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References

• Friedman, T. (2000) The Lexus and the olive tree: understanding globalization. Farrar, Strauss & Giroux
• Friedman, T. (2008) The World Is Flat 3.0: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century
• Ha-Joon Chang (2002) Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective. Anthem Press
• Ha-Joon Change (2008) Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism , London, UK: Bloomsbury Press
• Alexander Hamilton´s biography. Wikipedia

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Collaboration and learning

"The company that plays together stays together" -as this Peter Drucker video illustrates-. There is also a less commented but equally relevant point and it has been introduced by Harvard professors Hagel, Brown and Davidson in a recent article you can access through this link: Introducing the Collaboration Curve

Check it a post you comments and ideas about:

1. How does the collaboration curve works in your PII project?
2. How can you proactively use it to improve your PII project results?

Good capitalism, bad capitalism

Denise Dressler describes in this conference at UAM what she considers the reasons and causes for Mexico´s slow growth.

In her presentation, she alludes to Yale economists Baumol and Schram book Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, that we already commented in our courses and in this blog.

Take a look at her presentation and write your thoughts and comments in response, indicating:

1. How can PII help overcome the problems and challenges described by Dr. Dresser
2. How can new organizations prosper in spite of dysfunctional ecosystems

Additional related presentations:

Business ecosystems

Prahalad on innovation through enterprise

Roger Kaufman, PhD CPT: Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to Waste (April, 2009 PerformanceXpress)

It is clear that what organizations now do and deliver are wanting.

They ignore the new realities we now face, and continuing to do so will serve no one well. If we are ever going to transform business and the way we do our work, we now have a rare opportunity; a crisis is indeed a terrible thing to waste.

To get viable transformation, we have to rethink some core drivers that might have served us in the past but if continued will likely continue to become the seeds of our destruction. Among the traditional myths under which many of us labor are

(1) the organizations with which we work are organized appropriately,

(2) the tools for organizational and performance improvement will work well if we only apply them correctly where we are asked to work, and

(3) what business does and delivers is useful for all citizens of today and tomorrow.

These will not work.

It is time to transform ourselves and our organizations and turn away from these myths to create today’s business so it will create our future legacy; to create a successful tomorrow.

Are we headed in the right direction for organizational success?

Can and should we change?

Economic hard times ebb and flow but are now flowing into what we call a crisis.

We can choose to fail or we can take the opportunity to transform ourselves and those with whom we work.

The reality is that the world has changed dramatically—a paradigm shift, or a “sea change”—and what we have always done, no matter how good we are at doing that, will no longer suffice. We have to look to new and responsive ways of thinking, doing, and contributing.

Business reality is not divided into work units, sections, departments, divisions, or markets, and these silos must not limit the contributions that can be made by performance improvement specialists.

Our fragmented performance and performance improvement efforts and tools are based on the myth of the primacy of individual performance and performers.

And our organizational objectives are largely based on expert opinion and not upon what data demonstrate is required to contribute and survive.

We do not routinely link and align what we use, do, produce, and deliver with the added measurable value to all, including society. Thus, our business objectives are suspect.

Transformation, Not Just Change Shift happens, and change happens.

The choice is to be the master of change or the victim of it.

Conner suggests that only crisis—he uses the analogy of standing on a burning oil platform in the North Sea with no hope of rescue—will make people change. And we currently have something akin to our standing on a burning oil platform and realizing that the normal solutions, including our favorite approaches, just will not work.

What is called for is nothing less than transformation, a dramatic shift from ordinary change and business as usual.

This is not the usual “change” that is trumpeted by management experts and offered in the literature and in workshops; it is not just tinkering with the status quo.

Some Concepts and Tools for Transformation

One model for dealing with transformation demanded by new realities I term Mega planning.

It urges that everything any organization uses, does, develops, and delivers is based on adding measurable value to and for external clients and society.

This is quite different from the conventional and widely applied models of strategic planning where the primary client and beneficiary is the organization itself.

In addition, most conventional planning models, at best, look to outside of themselves and do environmental scanning and shape their business to be responsive to sensed external realities so they can do a better job of selling—a reactive process that assumes that one’s organization is viable and one only has to find reactive ways to make all work cheaper, faster, and better to justify itself to external funding and look good to current or potential clients.

This alone is not sufficient in and of itself. In organizational transformation, one does not only react to current realities but seeks to create new initiatives and even unique organizations to add value in the new realities.

One must justify his or her organization in terms of creating the future, not simply reacting to it.

Based on a societal needs assessment—gaps between current and desired results and consequences in terms of the survival, self-sufficiency, and quality of life of all people—the organization can identify needs (not wants) that should and could be met.

And these data might even guide dramatic change of the mission of the organization or even close it down or replace it if it does not add any societal value. Mega planning can be both market creating as well as market responsive; both proactive and reactive.

This aspect, which differentiates it from conventional approaches, is ideal for creating success in crisis conditions.

Rejecting Failure: Some Guidelines Rethink and reject obsolete paradigms.

Realize that what worked yesterday may not continue to work in the future.

Do not assume that current problems are linear and logical extensions of what we have experienced in the past and attempt to apply the concepts, tools, and models that have worked for us before.

Do not get lulled into using the conventional methods of “strategic” planning.

Use a holistic paradigm for thinking, planning, and doing where the primary client of your and any organization is tomorrow’s child and citizen.

See your organization as a means to productive societal ends; Mega thinking and planning.

As Dale Brethower notes “either you are adding value to society or you are subtracting value.”

Additional support for a Mega focus is from Ian Davis, international practice director of McKinsey & Co., in his call for a core strategic planning focus on societal value-added for any organization as vital; at the nucleus of strategic thinking and not something at the margins.

When we do not focus on measurable societal value-added, we get the crises that swirl around us today.

Where is the societal value-added—Mega thinking and planning—primary concern in federal, state, and local legislation and oversight for the last several decades?

Where is Mega in the objectives and performance criteria for today’s public and private business organizations?

Do not throw out your competence in “standard” human performance technology (HPT) but apply it if, and only if, you have validated that the tools and concepts will add value to the entire organization.

But do not start with them, but prove their usefulness in terms of external and internal value-added. (ISPI calls this the RSVP—results, system thinking, adding value, and partnering. This suggested transformation approach will first validate any applications of HPT tools and approaches.)

Do not assume that since you work at a level below the corporate level that you cannot get change or even listened to.

As Don Tosti notes, what we know how to do is “scalable” and can be generalized to help the decision makers ask and answer the “right questions.”

Show them how linking everything to Mega results and payoffs is both practical and ethical. R

Resist being limited by the conventional business case model. One current weakness in conventional business case frameworks is that they just include the conventional bottom line.

For rational and ethics reasons, that defies rationality is why we don’t, in everything we do, whether we are at the top of an organization or just one of the staff, additionally include external and societal value added.

It can be done, it is being done, and the data support the viability of doing so as provided by Bernardez (2009) in his double bottom-line business case, which uses a conventional bottom line as well as a primary societal value-added bottom line.

Reexamining Our Conventional Ways of Thinking About and Designing Business

Below are some “conventional wisdom” ways in which we plan and deliver business and a comparison for each in terms of what transformation will embrace and allow for future success.

Antidotes to Failure—Embracing Transformation

Enabled by Crises The Chinese have been at this civilization business for a long time. And they have the wisdom to show for it. Their symbol for “crisis” combines “fear” and “opportunity.” At, at the same time that everyone else is retreating into failure modes, opportunities exist. Do not waste the current crisis.

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Key Readings

• Bernardez, M. (April-May, 2009). Sailing the winds of “creative destruction”: Educational technology during economic downturns. Educational Technology,


• Drucker, P.F. (1990). The new realities: In government and politics/in economics and business/in society and world view. New York: Harper & Row.


• Kaufman, R. (2006). Change, choices, and consequences: A guide to mega thinking and planning. Amherst, MA: HRD Press Inc.


• Kaufman, R., & Guerra-Lopez, I. (2008). The assessment book: Applied strategic thinking and performance improvement through self-assessments. Amherst, MA. HRD Press Inc.


• Schumpeter, J. A. (1975). Capitalism, socialism, and democracy. New York: Harper & Row.


• Also see McCraw, T.K. (2007). Prophet of innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and creative destruction. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press.

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Counter arguments to Prahalad's BOP premise

This article is a counterpoint to Prahalad's BOM premise. The authors' main argument is that poor people are not all the creative entrepreneurs and informed consumers that Prahalad portrays, instead he portrays them as people who make bad choices, and suffer from anxiety, depression, etc. Personally, I don't find his arguments convincing as he does not provide any evidence (whereas Prahalad provides specific and real examples of where and how his principles have worked with this population)..and I couldn't help but feel a twisted socialist undertone as I read the article.

Granted, I acknowledge that not every person, rich, poor, or in the middle feels, thinks and behaves the same as his peers, but I think this author's examples focus on a subset of the poor that may not be representative of their overall desires, drives, and choices (and perhaps Prahalad's examples are not either, but I don't think he claims they are).

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References

• Prahalad, C.K. (2006) Doing well by doing good


• Prahalad, C.K. (2006) Globalization effects on the global poor
• Allen Hammond (co author) responds to Karanani "Mirage at the bottom of the pyramid"


• Porter, M. (2007) Global competitiveness report


• Porter, M. (2006) What strategy is


• Rose, C. (2006) Interview with Michael Porter at Harvard Business School


• Mintzberg, H. (2006) Mintzberg on entrepeneurship


• Yunus, M. (2007) Building social business ventures


• Yunus, M. (2008) The social business model.


• De Soto, H. (2008) Property law and BOP poverty


• De Soto, H. (2008) Property law and BOP poverty 2


• De Soto, H. (2008) Property law and BOP poverty 3


• Biografia de Hernando de Soto


• Aneel Karnani (author) - Video


• The BOP debate: Aneel Karnani responds


• Aneel Karnani work and resume

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