On May 1, 2009, there were 156 cases in Mexico, with only 9 deaths reported, and 109 cases in US with only 1 death reported.Previous reports and "pandemic" talk described hundreds of victims. So far,influenza A/H1N1 has only caused 10 deaths in the entire world, as described by this WHO map.
"A crisis is a terrible thing to waste"
"Economists predicted 8 out of the last 4 global crises"
Kenneth Galbraith
"Swine influenza has not been shown to be transmissible to people through
eating properly handled and prepared pork (pig meat) or other products derived
from pigs. The swine influenza virus is killed by cooking temperatures of
160°F/70°C corresponding to the general guidance for the preparation of pork and other meat."
We must learn the lessons from SARS.
The colossal flow of misinformation has created more problems than the flu, forcing US, Mexico and World Health Organization to correct most of the "false positives" in the news:
"False positives" revealed until May 1, 2009:
- The "death toll" is much lower than announced: only 9 on 128 deaths from pneumonia reported in Mexico were caused by A/H1N1 virus. Only 1 in the US. All deaths are reported in persons with additional and preexisting health conditions. WHO and Financial Times confirmed. 20,000 people die every year of pneumonia in Mexico alone. Many Mexican deaths are mostly caused by dysfunctional public healt-indiced cultural malpractices.
- The virus didn't start at a hog farm nor in Mexico: there were previous cases reported in San Diego, California -and all of them tested positive for A/H1N1 and they had never been close to pigs or in Mexico. US CDC , WHO and Wall Street Journal reported. The current virus might likely be a benign genetic variety of foregin (not Mexicna, not American) varieties.
The H1N1 virus -generated by a mutation of a virus common to birds (SARS), humans and pigs, is transmitted from human to human only -and through the respiratory system-. N1H1 remains a A type influenza.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO) last report, the N1H1 virus is the combination between 1 human influenza virus strain, 1 brid flu strain and 2 different virus strains from pigs. Viruses mutate and combine inside a human host, that operates as a "lab flask".
Infection is only possible from human to human through respiratory ways.
Food consumption (pork meat or any other produce) is safe.
According to the most recent report from US Center for Disease Control (CDC), Mexico is unlikely to be the origin of the virus, but its victim.
Mexico got more severe (lethal) cases moslty because its poorest population has less exposure to anti-influenza vaccines that US -and also a more crowded-air environment-. .
New information seems to indicate that lethal cases have almost come to a stop and new contagion inside Norteamerica has slowed down or stalled. Energetic measures by WHO, US and Mexico governments seem to be producing results, particularly the early hospitalization and use of proven antiviral drugs early on and preventively.
The economic damage to trade, tourism, agriculture and almost all kinds of economic activity is , however, pretty evident.
US-labs produced drugs and vaccines are already available and ramping up production to get out to the global market in May. WHO has millions of dosis, US Health Dept over 50 million and EU -after the SARS scare- has a stockpile about the same size.
At the begining - 15 days into the alarm- , 180 deaths were reported -150+ in Mexico-.
Only 9 were caused by N1H1.
A regular influenza epidemic produces 37,000 deaths in the US only.
The US government statistics since 1900 show 6 influenza pandemics:
- 1918: Spanish influenza: 680,000 death in US. No vaccine or drugs available, virus unknown
- 1957-58: Asian flu. 68,000 death in US. Virus was identified and vaccine developed
- 1968: Hong Kong flu: 33,800 death in US. Virus identified and vaccine developed.
- 1976: "Swine flu" threat: few hundred cases in Fort Dix, USA
- 1977: China flu: first appearance of influenza A/H1N1 virus. Fuew hundred death, in minors
- 1997: SARS: Started in China, with 18 death, 200 infected and was controlled.
US Secretary of Commerce recognized that "swine flu" should be called N1H1 and that pork produce is complete safe, reamking the damaga that misinformation causes to the industry and the population in US and Mexico depending on it.
Facing the possibility of travel quarantine at a global scale and restrictions to the use of public space, the challenge is to find wasy to minimize disruptions to education, business and production.
As during the September 11, 2001 global scare and SARS, e-performance technologies might help alleviate and overcome such restrictions, by allowing human interaction and communication while minimizing person-to-person, physical contact.
Mega project organizing health centers in Tartagal, Salta, 1998 - Refinor project, Mariano Bernardez-
But our key questions must involve a larger framework of our current PII strategic projects:
- How can your PII project help during this crisis ? (if it can be done, please also do it)
- Which other PII projects could have strategic impact in this crisis? (explain why and how)
- How can PII and ITSON help organize our South of Sonora ecosystem to overcome the crisis? Refer to our PII projects Mega indicators and goals.
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References
- Luhon, J, De Cordova, J & Naik, G. (2009) Germ Sleuths Stalk Origin of Killer Flu. Wall Street Journal
- CCD Report April 30: CDC Virologist: Swine Flu Origin Likely Not Mexico
- La Nacion (2009) Descartó la UE suspender los vuelos hacia México por la gripe porcina
- Sidney Sunday Times (2009) History of swine flu
- Tamiflu results (patients)
- Swine influenza cannot be transmitted through pork products
- Wikipedia (2009) Swine flu epidemic in Mexico - article in progress-
- World Health Organization resources on AVHN-1 potential pandemic
- US government Pandemicflu.gov.
- US impact of possible pandemic state-by-state analysis
- Bloomberg estimates
- History of global flu pandemics since 1900 (US government)
- Pandemics (different causes) Wikipedia
- Influenza pandemics
- Swine flu outbreak makes imported pork a harder sell
- Tamiflu anti-viral drug treatment
- Oseltamivir (generic drug)
- The Lancet (editorial, 2009) Swine influenza: how much of a glolbal threat?
- The Lancet(editorial, 2009) A reapraisal of avian influenza
- The Lancet (home page)
- World Health Organization (WHO Home page)
- WHO: Swine influenza updates
- WHO: FAQ on H1N1
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The way forward
If Paul Romer is right, we must use this crisis as an opportunity for improvement and transformation.
Here is a possible agenda:
- How can we generalize pork production best practices?
- How can we align meat production with Mega goals?
- How can we organize a healthy ecosystem?
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Reference videos
The history of cold cuts (1 of 4)
The history of the pig (Modern Marvels)
Animal welfare - pig production best practices
Sustainability on the pig farm
How baby pigs are really treated
Truth about modern pork production
Pig farm employee tells all
Ham culture: Museo del Jamon, Madrid (Ham Museum, Madrid)
Iberico ham "de bellota" (acorn fed) arrives in Chicago
Iberico ham explained and demonstrated
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Posts
10 comments:
It is interesting that numbers such as these always build on "what ls" and doesn't take into account "what could be."
An interesting aspect of Mega and how we define "need" and "needs assessment" we can idetifyh gaps in results at the Mega level that no organization is attending to. These are opportunitiess.
Another advantage we have is that all of our projects are based in creating the future and not assuming that current objectives are complete and valid.
We must go into the offensive in communications. I suggest you some possible initiatives along that path:
1. Providing Tamiflu (or equivalent) to all personnel
2. Providing Tamiflu (or equivalent) as a service to clients
Both actions would strenghten producers position in (a) underlying that this is human-to-human influenza and must be addressed as such by concrete action –instead of fueling fear- and (b) that PII projects are consistent with their Mega goals of promoting health and well-being among the community and customers.
Last but not least –following the same strategic thinking path- , this might be a good opportunity to consider offering prepared meals in both delivery, carry-out or drive-in format to address the likely requirements of families serving healthy meals at home to adults and forced stay-at-home school age children. Doing good is –as you well know- not only incompatib le but the best path to doing well.
Fist Part
Before that all through history it is possible to establish relations between epidemics have been devastating to humanity, one of them is the 1Black Death was a devastating epidemic that ravaged Europe in the fourteenth century and it is estimated, nearly decimated one third of the population of the European continent. It is the belief that the Black Death was an outbreak of bubonic plague through infected fleas with the help of the black rat (Rattus rattus), getting to know this bacterium Yersinia pestis. His death was 25 million people in Europe, Asia-Africa on 40 and 50 million respectively. On the other hand, another of the virus of greatest influence to the devastation of a population has been 2Ebola virus Ebola-Zaire has the highest mortality rate, up from 90% in some epidemics, with an average of 83% . Since the first outbreak occurred on August 26, 1976 in Yambuku, a city in northern Zaire (now Democratic Republic of the Congo). These viruses are of great influence can end up with a part of humanity.
In the case of Mexico, it is important to stress the importance of expert advice in the development of outdoor activities to enhance the value to society, to the ecotourism project by the influenza crisis has serious repercussions, such as poor advertising media which seriously affected the tourism industry and has sparked an economic impact influenze´s effect.
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola
testing
1. How can your help during this project PII crisis? (if it can be done, please do it)
• First make sure that the information generated by the media is correct, follow the steps taken by the Government, although some believe were exaggerated, that reaction to the situation, we opted for the prevention but not for sorrow.
• Disseminate our community in a timely, safe and reliable information on provisions of the health authorities to prevent the lives and health, to avoid panic.
• Cooperate with government regulations and health, to maintain order with employees.
• Propose to the federal government and national alternatives to address the collateral damage and the economic crisis that is causing this situation.
• Exploiting the circumstances of the situation and the financial support of the government for reviving the kick in the turns as the most affected are: the pig sector, restaurants, tourism and aviation. Could be a good time to introduce draft PII to Federal Ministry of Economy.
• This will allow the generation of new jobs directly and indirectly, the conservation of more than 4000 direct jobs and 10,000 indirect porciola sector, ensuring the social and economic transformation of the region in May, where the first week of the attack of viruses known of influenza "swine" decreased by 50% its current national and international sales.
• Despite the discrimination of some countries such as China and Japan to Mexican individuals, potential carriers of influenza virus A N1H1, Navojoa continued with 100% of its pork exports to these countries.
• Which other projects PII could have strategic impact in this crisis? (explain why and how)
Federal Ministry of Economy announced a program of financial support to emerging and start reviving SMEs, supported by government taxes, for the most productive drafts concerned: firstly, the tourism sector, where the generation of PII has an interesting project.
Other projects ITSON also could benefit in the payment of taxes to the Ministry of Finance pubic, to deduct the excess of the monthly payment of IETU ISR, but it is something that only could be done until the annual return, for its part banks in their financing granted months' grace in the payment of credit, support for up to 12 months in payments to working capital.
Moreover the government also supports a national campaign to recover 80 percent of the economy arising from domestic and foreign tourism. In tourist areas like Cancun in Quintana Roo, Mexico, the average occupancy of hotels is about 7%, many have closed their facilities, have been lost over 20,000 jobs including taxitas, canceled flights, etc..
The realization of strategic projects PII to revive the regional economy in crisis.
• How can PII ITSON and help organize our ecosystem of Sonora South to overcome the crisis? Refer to our IIP indicators Mega projects and goals.
One of the strengths of pork producers in the South of Sonora, is conducting process safety certificates, hygiene and safety in pork production, from its birth in the pig farms, slaughterhouses and marketers, are also highly trained, sophisticated equipment and facilities that allow the pork is a food with high nutritional properties and very reliable in their consumption.
It could design a great ad campaign on the safe consumption of pork, highlighting the attributes mentioned above.
In Australia, happends something similar whith the flu and the sars, this is the impact in Australia:
Economic Effects on Australia by the SARS
The 5.3 per cent reduction in forecast inbound tourism numbers implies a $977 m fall in injected tourism expenditure.
This translates into a reduction of real GDP of $109.2 m and loss of 2517 jobs
This is offset to an extent by an estimated reduction of $817 million in outbound expenditure
the expenditure foregone by outbound tourists must be allocated between expenditure on domestic tourism, purchases of other goods and services, and savings under different assumptions about the pattern of such substituted expenditure
reduction in Real GDP is $38.98 m to $83.29 m reduction in employment is 692 to 1642 jobs
Actions taken by the Governments in the Asia Pacific region made an effort to:
establish or expand measures to support tourism's productive structure
gear promotional actions towards markets, market segments and products that were more accessible to the potential demand
provide incentives to boost domestic and intra-regional tourism
New Feelings about the Flu
Economic Impact
“It’s hard to say at this stage how deep and how wide and how long this episode will be,” Carstens told reporters in Washington yesterday, where he was attending a meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. “If we are successful the impact should be minor.”
Isidro Reyes, who was selling cheeses and fruits from the back of his pickup truck in Mexico City’s Roma neighborhood, said business had fallen 50 percent since April 24, when the government first shut schools.
Empty Streets
“People are scared,” said Reyes, 29. “We’re alone on the streets.”
Raul Sanchez, a 49-year-old taxi driver in Mexico City, said business has dropped by half since April 24.
“People don’t even want to leave their houses,” he said. “It was bad enough with the economic situation, and now it’s even worse.”
The World Bank has agreed to loan Mexico $205 million to flight swine flu, Carstens said. Of that amount, $25 million will be disbursed immediately for the government to buy medicines and equipment to detect and fight the virus.
The Finance Ministry said last night the government has 6 billion pesos ($450 million) from an emergency fund to fight the virus and will help state governments cover the costs by advancing budget transfer payments.
No foreign government has banned travel to Mexico, Economy Minister Ruiz said yesterday. Foreign tourism, which amounted to $13.3 billion in 2008, is Mexico’s third-largest source of foreign currency behind oil exports and remittances from Mexicans who live abroad.
Some strategies that we can applie and determining the activities in the UAE for the tourism.
In Dubai, we have some considerations for the tourism in the with the United Arab Emirates
"As the UAE serves as a prominent global business and tourism centre, of major concern now is what kind of impact swine flu will have on the tourism industry. Tourism is a major contributor to GDP in the UAE and confirmation of any cases of the virus would weigh heavily on the sector, as well as on the oil price as people cut back on travel. However, according to H.E Saeid Bin Ahmed Al Buti, Chairman of Al Dhiafa Holding, while the influenza pandemic must be taken seriously because of its capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world, there is currently no actual threat of swine flu to the UAE. Of main concern, naturally, is the effect of this type of pandemic on the tourism industry specifically. However, the situation is being monitored closely, and the government is taking all precautionary steps to prevent swine flu from entering the country, particularly since the UAE is a hub for tourists and business travelers from around the world. The Technical Health Committee on Combating Swine Flu will be tasked with developing health plans and policies, precautions and preventive procedures to combat swine flu in accordance with the communicable diseases law, while The Supervisory Committee on Combating Swine Flu will be tasked with preparing proposals and recommendations for the national strategy to combat swine flu, following up on the implementation of plans to observe ports of entry as well as coordinating with WHO and other international and regional relevant organizations"
http://www.eyeofdubai.ae/v1/news/newsdetail-30628.htm
The way PII can help:
Reduce the effects of influenza in world population.
Minimize the economic effects worldwide, but mostly in the most affected regions (Mexico) and industries (pork producers, tourism, transportation).
Use PII contacts, and contacts of these contacts to search for resources and ideas to revitalize the affected PII industries (pork producers, tourism).
Conclude about what was well and bad done during the crisis by the decision makers in order to gain the experience and apply it to any organization before, during, and after a crisis.
This influenza epidemic is a health problem combined with a paramount communication problem. Miss-information has been the real problem, because big decisions have been taken with the wrong information. Mexican authorities may have been caught in the media perverse game, taking exaggerated decisions whose costs very possibly will incomparably be higher that the effects. But we won’t know until the epidemic crisis is over.
Media, instead of being the way to the solution, has been the gasoline thrown into the fire, irresponsibly speculating about a problem that has not shown to be, up to this moment, such a big problem.
Apparently, Mexico was caught with no contingency plan at hand. The cost of this is that we are following other countries plans, and the cost of that might be too high.
How can we apply gained knowledge from the PII Doctoral program on Strategic Planning for Performance Improvement to prevent or diminish consequences or effects of a crisis?
- Develop the capacities around a business that you can control the outcomes, the outputs, offered products and services, and systems inputs
- Diversify products, markets, suppliers, input materials, etc. in order to minimize effects on potential crisis.
- Develop capacities within your company to deal properly with crisis, minimizing it’s effects, and after the storm design and execute a plan to renew yourself stronger; and develop a genuine interest in MEGA: doing what is best for society, in this way, we will be sure that decisions will always be right.
- Do a potential risk analysis for your business (something as HACCP methodology, but applied to every potential risk associated to the business)
- Run an assessment analysis on the found risks and conclude with figures of costs associated with eliminating the risk compared with the cost of not doing anything and facing up with the consequences of worst case scenario.
- And if you are serious about your company’s destiny, design and execute a plan with clear objectives on your assessment conclusions to close the gaps of actual vs. desired status.
How our projects can help in the midst of crisis A1H1 ?
I'd like to rescue two lessons that I believe are very important.
First, the lesson that teach us about the importance of focus our projects in MEGA, because has been demonstrated how one simple variable of MEGA system ( health ) which under another circumstances and under the common focus different of MEGA maybe we never consider in our strategic planning, can be a very critical impact in the organization and in the global system. Our projects must always consider the MEGA as the starting point for planning and we must promote it to other organizations to adopt this specially bye the example from the A1H1 crisis like the best example.
Second, the very big effect and impact that can have information that is disseminated intensely to ensure regardless degree of reality of this information for become a reality. In planning our projects must consider the ability to exploit the capacity of information systems for the promotion and the marketing our products and services of the project or any factor that may help our project. Likewise, we must prevent as far as possible any negative aspect which can be magnified to the detriment of the project or its market.
The A1H1 crisis offers to our project “High Performance weightlifting Center”, which naturally has a connotation of sports, provide the possibility of developing an advertising campaign for people to come or pick up a sport as a measure to be more healthy and greater number of defenses in the body so that they may be less prone to disease in a natural way.
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